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by Fred C. Wilson III
June 1, 2012
“Or suppose a king is going to war against another king. He will first sit down and consider whether with 10,000 men he can fight the one coming against him with 20,000 men, won’t he?”
-Luke 14:31 (ISV)-
In ‘The Spratly Affair’ an article I wrote in 2009, I cited the growing conflict between China and the Philippines. I displayed charts, maps and graphs illustrating the disparity between the militaries of both countries and predicted a Chinese victory in the event of war. Who can say if a hot war will envelop both countries? From articles I’ve read in various Philippine sources the question never asked was who would win? Your writer think if the United States intervened on behalf of the Philippines, China would still emerge victorious for reasons I’ll explain later.
China’s navy is small compared with the U.S. 7th Fleet that patrols the Pacific but its’ growing (Source: www.sinodefence.com). For an accurate picture of Chinese naval strength search: ‘Chinese naval strength.’ You’ll find information, Chinese navy videos and a host of other sources you may find informative. China is super-rich, has an enormous population, its military equipped with state-of-the-art weaponry, and has no serious internal threats worth mentioning. The communist government has time and money to develop/expand their military.
The Philippines is plagued with economic woes of mega proportions, government/business corruption, and enough internal squabbles to last well into the next century. In the event of a shooting war all the Philippines have going for itself is prayers (They help.), well wishes and enough corruption in all societal sectors to go around.
If war broke out between the two countries, unless the United States intervenes on behalf of the Philippines, a Chinese invasion (reinvasion considering the part China played historically in Philippine affairs before Spanish colonialism) would be imminent. The big question is could the U.S. afford to confront its’ biggest trading partner/creditor militarily; don’t think so. We’re talking big $$$$$ America’s one true god. Chinese intelligence operatives could buy information technology from any country. With the sagging economy, political/business mismanagement at all levels, national elections in six months, our own internal squabbles I don’t think the U.S. would be willing to risk national foreclosure and World War III over the tiny Philippines. Beside this country is in debt to the ‘Chinese dragon’ but anything could happen.
The assassination of Austro-Hungarian Archduke Francis Ferdinand in June of 1914 set off the chain reaction that launched World War I which in turn spawned World War II hence the moral morass we’re in today. The difference now is that the key players have nuclear capabilities.
I like to think positive. I should hate to end my days on earth limping around on my two bad legs scrounging out of garbage cans since crops would rot in the fields owing to a dearth of harvesters. A global conflict would close all Jewel-OSCO’s, Dominick’s, Trader Joe’s, Macy’s and all other mercantile enterprises. The modern world would shut down permanently, awaiting reinvention thousands of years later as soon as radiation is at livable levels. The idea of flush toilets, convenience stores, and other symbols of civilization would have to be reinvented after humanity reemerges from a new Stone Age in the projected year 4000! I for one don’t have time to hang around and wait; neither do YOU. Two thousand years is a long time to wait not to mention a few thousand years more before strains of human mutated genes due to radioactive fallout are hopefully erased. Reader any SANE country won’t risk nuclear war to make the world safe for democracy.
Here’s the scenario. The Philippine Republic and the Peoples Republic of China are at war. Not wanting to risk both war and economic foreclosure to China America sacrifice the Philippines. Within months Peoples Army forces capture the country though pockets of resistance continue fighting until snuffed out. In the old Star Trek series whenever the Klingon Empire invaded new territories their military assured inhabitants that ‘resistance is futile.’ The Chinese make the same boast to an occupied Philippines. They use force of arms to prove it. All who oppose ‘Liberation Forces’ are rounded up, tortured, jailed, shot! Within months of the Chinese victory drastic changes are enacted by Beijing on hapless Filipinos:
The atheistic Chinese establish a government sponsored national birth control policy. Within a year the national birthrate plummets. Health conditions gradually improve but at a very high price; individual/collective freedom.
Corruption in national government/business is a thing of the past. Beijing executes en masse all corrupt government officials/businesspersons at televised trials/executions.
The Muslim-Christian conflict in the southern provinces comes to an abrupt halt. Communist officials imprison/execute all leaders of sectarian violence throughout the country. They ship thousands to ‘reeducation camps.’
Members of the communist NPA (New Peoples Army) are welcomed into the pro-Beijing Philippine government.
All religious groups are ‘reorganized’ and made a bureau in the new Philippine government. The Catholic Church still allied with the Vatican but the government seeks to gradually lessen ties between Manila and Rome.
The new government offers economic incentives to members of the Philippine version of the ‘Philippine Patriotic Association,’ Beijing’s version of a national Catholic Church of the Philippines. Over time Vatican loyalists are arrested and join captured jihadists in ‘reeducation camps.’
All clerical appointments must be approved by the new government before it sanctions ordinations and assignments. Eventually other Christian denomina-tions/Muslims toe the party line or risk jail, confiscation of property and worse.
Under Chinese rule the Philippine military is modernized, enlarged with its commanders marching to Beijing’s music. A Philippine puppet regime is installed in Malacanang. Chinese military leaders’ call the shots though rule in the shadows. Think: Hong Kong. The Beijing government doesn’t want Filipinos to see ‘foreigners’ visibly in charge for fear of popular revolt.
Losing to China would push many much needed reforms back home. Given the communists’ penchant for order, discipline, an educated populace, a strong military, total control not to forget the Chinese propensity for economic development through education and heavy industry, the Philippine Republic, if it would be still called that after Chinese conquest, would at long last be a prosperous first world nation, albeit a puppet one sans foreign (white) influence/ domination. The price tag: total destruction of individual/collective human rights with attendant freedoms forfeit.
South East Asia and the Pacific Rim is a tinderbox just waiting for some idiot politician to toss in a lighted match. The reality of the situation is for all parties involved to come together and settle this dispute at the peace table not the battlefield. They’d better or else.
Reader again I postponed the theological article in favor of this more urgent one. The promised article’s been written and largely edited. With all the urgencies that keep cropping up I have no idea when I’ll run it; GOD bless.
(vamaxwell@yahoo.com)