“ Assad Endgame : How Do We Stand Up for Our Values and Interests in Syria?”

“The opposite of love is not hate. It’s indifference. Take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim.” ~ Elie Wiesel, 1986
“We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard.” ~ Pres. John F. Kennedy, 1962
“Footfalls echo in the memory
Down the passage which we did not take
Towards the door we never opened
Into the rose-garden.” ~ T.S. Eliot, 1936
“If we’d gone in sooner, I believe we could have saved at least a third of the lives that were lost in Rwanda. It had an enduring impact upon me.” ~ Pres. Bill Clinton, 2013
“Decided only to be undecided, resolved to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all-powerful to be impotent.” ~ Winston S. Churchill, 1936
“No solution can be reached except by striking with an iron fist.” ~ Pres. Bashar al-Assad, 2013
“I have a drone.” ~ “Private Eye”, UK satirical magazine, parody on Pres. Obama’s foreign policy, 2013.
“Our ideals and principles, as well as our national security, are at stake in Syria, along with our leadership of the world where we seek to ensure the worst weapons will never be used. With modest effort and risk, we can stop children from being gassed to death and thereby make our own children safer over the long-run. I believe we should act. That’s what makes America different. That’s what makes us exceptional.” ~ Pres. Barack Obama, Sept 10, 2013.
********
Returning home to Washington from Europe Tuesday evening, I was just in time to hear Pres. Obama’s address to the nation on Syria. In it he rightly expressed the horror and revulsion of the civilized world at the Assad regime’s now confirmed August use of sarin gas to kill over one thousand of its citizens in opposition neighborhoods of Syria’s capital, Damascus. But he went on to propose only a “modest effort” in the form of a one-time “targeted strike” aimed essentially at sending a message to Syria’s brutal dictator, Bashar al-Assad, that use of chemical weapons will not be tolerated by the USA and the civilized world. Since his speech, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has met in Geneva with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. And a deal has been reached for Syria to hand over within one year all of its chemical weapons stockpile – said to be the third largest in the world. Syria has also agreed to sign on to the 1997 international convention banning use of chemical weapons. Following these sudden developments, Pres. Obama has agreed to hold off military action for now, without ruling it out in future, in event of Syrian non-compliance. Pres. Obama’s speech and the limited action proposed are clearly designed to assuage concerns of a war-weary America of sliding into yet another Middle East conflict.
In many ways, the speech and the approach echo cross-currents I heard in Europe over the summer. Like many Americans, Europeans are war-weary and more concerned about their fragile, stagnating economies and reduced prosperity. Despite this, however, perhaps contradictorily, many Europeans still look to the United States and to Pres. Obama for leadership on major international issues, such as the deepening Syrian crisis. After almost five years in office, Pres. Obama is still admired by many Europeans. But the forcefulness and effectiveness of his – and more generally US – leadership in the world are increasingly questioned. Commentators from London and Paris to Rome and Berlin openly bemoan a U.S. foreign policy marked more by withdrawal and disengagement, and by undertaking modest initiatives at little risk, than firm pursuit of a clear long-term strategy for the future. As the U.K.’s “Private Eye” satirists see it, rather sardonically, “I have a dream” has been replaced by “I have a drone”. Meanwhile, the civil war in Syria far from showing signs of abating is becoming ever more brutal and deadly, metastasizing into neighboring states across the region, and taking on ever darker, more violent sectarian dimensions – especially between Sunni and Shia Moslems.
Key Questions : Recent developments underscore some key questions regarding U.S. foreign policy on Syria going forward : ~ How well does Pres. Obama’s strategy reflect American values and interests? ~ What is the current state of play in the Syrian conflict and what is needed to bring speedier, less bloody resolution? ~ How can U.S. foreign policy most effectively help promote emergence of a stable post-Assad state in Syria?
America at its Best : The challenge facing America now in Syria is not dissimilar from others it has faced since the Cold War. This just as in Bosnia and Kosovo against Serbian dictator Milosevic; in Desert Storm in Kuwait following Saddam’s invasion. Again, even more fundamentally in World War II and during the Cold War, notably with support for the Solidarity movement in Poland led by Lech Walesa. Each time the issue fundamentally is how to preserve the relatively free and stable world system we all live in and benefit from. Part of this has to do with relations between nation states. But increasingly, in a more educated, prosperous and inter-connected world today, it concerns moral leadership in upholding shared values – democracy, human and civil rights, the rule of law. Generally, America has been at her best when it stood up for these values. But also, pragmatically, it has enabled the USA to build and lead a world political and economic system that has enhanced US power and wealth. Conversely, America has not been at its best when it either simply accepted the status quo – as in early isolationism and appeasement of Hitler, or when it has supported repressive regimes – such as the many dictatorships the US tolerated and supported during the Cold War. Or again, when it intervened hastily and massively in countries misreading the situation – as in Vietnam, or more recently in Iraq and by prolonging the war in Afghanistan. This is why, albeit imperfectly, Pres. Jimmy Carter focused US foreign policy on upholding human rights, and why more recently the United Nations has declared national leaders accountable for their treatment of their citizens. Maintaining an open, stable, accountable world system, and the moral authority of American leadership underpinning this, are now more important than ever. Too much so for war-weariness to let us succumb to withdrawal and isolationism. Europe and the world – as well as we Americans – are looking to the U.S.A. to lead.
Syria Today – Torn Apart by a Tyranny Fast Engulfing Its Neighbors : In focusing narrowly on Assad’s use of chemical weapons Tuesday evening, Pres. Obama considerably understated the dangers posed by the deepening conflict in Syria, as it draws in others nations next door, including U.S. allies, Turkey, Jordan, Israel, Iraq. For over two years of devastating, brutal conflict, the Assad regime has grossly violated the human and civil rights of its citizens : ~ over two hundred thousand Syrians (many women and children) have been slaughtered; ~ a third of the population (as many as six millions) have been displaced as refugees. In its broad flagrant use of heavy weaponry on the Syrian population, the Assad regime’s use of banned weapons has already been widespread. These include cluster bombs and scud missiles, not to mention tanks and heavy artillery, in addition to chemical weapons. Even before use of the latter, a weak and vacillating U.S. and Western response already emboldens other would-be tyrants in a complex and fractured world. In such a context, the deal under discussion with the Russians risks implicitly condoning such state-sponsored violence, and perhaps foregoing pursuit of justice for the past use of chemical weapons, so long as (we are told) they will not be used in future? From all that Pres. Assad has continued to say and do, can there be any doubt that, as quoted above, he will continue to “strike with an iron fist” ? Moreover, the use of predominantly Shia “shabiha” militias to terrorize restive Sunni Moslem populations, and latterly the use of Shia Hizbollah fighters, has aggravated the sectarian nature of the conflict, thus drawing in Sunni and Shia from across the Middle East. What started out as a single-country conflict is increasingly becoming a lightning rod for the region as a whole.
What Can U.S. Policy Do? : In these circumstances, to be effective, far more is needed than a token slap across the wrists of Assad to tell him not to use chemical weapons. This is not Halabja. Already massive widespread violence has been done to the whole Syrian population. Rather the USA surely needs a clear-sighted, medium-term strategy aimed at forcefully and determinedly isolating and degrading the Syrian regime, while preparing for a post-Assad Syria that is more democratic, tolerant and multi-sectarian. The military support to moderate rebel groups needs to be strengthened considerably – provided only that there is a clear understanding on the latter principles. In such a strategy, the USA needs to work with all the actors involved in the Syrian conflict. This of course includes the Russians, but also importantly the Iranians. As the leading Shia Moslem power, only Iran can provide the bridge that could head off deepening sectarian conflict. Meanwhile, the Iranians have already started quietly positioning themselves for a post-Assad Syria. The USA would have a greater likelihood of success in this if it recognized broader Iranian security concerns in the region, posed by the Sunni-Shia divide. Offering to handle the nuclear issue in that context might ease enlisting Iranian support in resolving the Syrian conflict, rather than prolonging it.
Conclusions : On the surface, Syria may seem like an isolated crisis in one quite small and poor nation. But it is linked into the massive and fast-changing dynamic across the Middle East. So, whatever the outcomes, the USA and its allies will be living with them for decades to come. Now is no time for a new isolationism and half-hearted limited approaches. A firm, clear-sighted, determined strategy is required with patient and enduring execution. I, for one, hope that our political leaders will be up to the task!