ShareThis“O tempora! O mores!” – Cicero
by Paul Ballard
February 1, 2013
Looking out over the Mall filled with thronging crowds of a million fellow countrymen, on a frigid January day in Washington D.C., President Obama gave an inspiring address to mark his second inaugural as President. He challenged us, as Americans, to chart a new course, renewing policies and institutions to achieve progress in our new and rapidly changing world. He called upon our politicians to come together for the common good, to redefine and reinvigorate collective action to support free markets and individual responsibility as cornerstones of our Constitution and society. He told us, rightly I believe, that America is at its best when we act together in the interests of a shared prosperity, based upon a strong middle class. He laid out an agenda for focused but ambitious action in the coming four years, striking a balance between individual and government responsibility.
After the many celebratory balls were over Monday night, though, I was struck by how sharp the contrast was in the following days, and how quick politicians and pundits were to parse and critique the speech for their own agendas. The resumption of political stand-offs on many fronts played out between Republicans and Democrats, between the Congress and the White House signaled an icy rude awakening from President Obama’s forward-looking rhetoric. The few conciliatory moves by Congress seemed designed more to appease their bases in the extremes of the two political parties. They focused far less on providing strong support for progress in addressing the U.S.’s pressing challenges. Extending the debt-ceiling deadline three months looks more like a stay of execution than a compromise, auguring bitter fights drawn out for months to come. Minor modification of Senate filibuster rules will accomplish little if, after they are brought to the floor, proposed nominations and legislation can still be endlessly blocked.
3 Alternative paths for the US political system
For the next two years of the 113th Congress, the US political system is faced with three alternative paths : stalemate, half-measures or real progress. Hopefully finally the trend will be towards the latter. Indefinitely re-enacting last-minute, short-term decision-making based upon hasty partial retreats from rigidly held positions will only ensure that long-term solutions are never agreed. That would condemn America – like Sisyphus – to forever push the same rocks up a hill of political non-decision, with no outcome in sight. Conservatives – on the Republican side – can insist that – following the last-minute Fiscal Cliff agreement – revenue is “off the table”. Liberals – on the Democrat side – can insist that Entitlement programs are sacred and must remain unchanged, despite massive demographic changes since their establishment. But such digging-in of heels will only ensure no progress in addressing America’s most vital long-term fiscal challenges. Against such “absolutism” of “principle”, President Obama said “we must act” “for now decisions are upon us and we cannot afford to delay”.
Pres. Obama’s second term agenda
President Obama’s second term domestic agenda focuses on education and skills training, infrastructure and basic research aimed at ensuring the U.S.’ long-term competitive edge and creation of high-paying jobs, under-pinning private investment and initiative. Other high priorities he singled out are: tax reform, health care costs and deficit reduction. He also highlighted sustainable energy, climate change and immigration reform. Tax reform needs to focus on ensuring adequate revenue while balancing spending and reforming incentives to private business and individual effort.
Health care costs crucially need to be reduced, and health services improved, as they vitally affect the private economy, people’s wellbeing and long-term fiscal sustainability. Immigration reform is now vital politically for both parties – given the growing Latino electorate – but also economically to ensure the USA has a growing and skilled labor force.
Sustainable energy achieved by diversifying into non-fossil fuels and renewables will be crucial long-term as global energy demand rises rapidly – notably in China and India. It will also contribute to addressing the increasing risks of climate change – recently brought home again by Super Storm Sandy – which U.S. private business is already viewing as a business risk. Meanwhile, ‘centrist’ Democrats – like Illinois Sen. Durbin – and Republicans agree ‘entitlement’ reforms are needed to ensure the U.S.’ social safety net is maintained for future generations of Americans.
This is hardly a liberal, but rather a centrist agenda. Many Americans polled recently, including in the exit polls for last November’s national elections, indicated strong support for addressing these issues.
Pres. Obama was refreshingly open-minded and pragmatic in recognizing that “outworn programs are inadequate” and need revamping. He added Americans have “not succumbed to the fiction that all society’s ills can be cured by government alone”. By presenting his agenda in such broad terms as goals, he left open considerable room for compromise in terms of the specifics of actual policies and the means of carrying them out. This is important, because – as many free-market Republicans would wish – health care reform might better be through private market reforms (to improve competition) rather than increased government programs. Similarly, meeting the USA’s massive infrastructure upgrading needs will have to involve major private as well as public investment.
Military and foreign policy
On foreign policy, Pres. Obama noted America was, in effect, turning a page by ending two long running wars. He recognized the great service of America’s young men and women in the armed forces. But in future, rather than being predominantly militarized, U.S. foreign policy should focus on strong alliances to maintain peace and stability in the world, working with other nations through strong institutions. He also, rightly in my view, recognized the need to address global poverty out of America’s self-interest. Living in a stable orderly world – avoiding the simultaneous rise of many weak or failed states – such as Somalia or Yemen – will be crucial to our future prosperity in a globalized economy. To do so, as Obama hinted, will require more than a purely military approach last-minute – as is now occurring in Mali. It will call for sustained long-term commitment to empower independent peoples in developing countries to manage better their own societies and to achieve economic growth and inclusion through democracy. This is a truly colossal – but vitally necessary – undertaking that will take many decades.
Surprisingly, and somewhat disappointingly, Obama said little about building relations with the other existing and emerging major world powers – China, India, the EU, Japan. Yet these will, if anything, be even more important to maintaining peace and stability in the world.
This reflects, in an important way, how U.S. foreign policy has not yet moved on. Twenty years on from the end of the Cold War, and ten years from 9/11, we need not only to “keep our eyes on the prize” but to be sure we rightly understand the world as it is today, not yesterday. For years, much of our thinking about the present and the future has been governed by the past and ideas left over from it. This can make us exaggerate problems that are much smaller than we think. And underestimate or ignore completely the real challenges. It will be crucial not to over-emphasize terrorism – even when terrorists are generally weak and poorly armed. For, the bigger challenges will be among economically powerful states not weak ones.
Ultimate tests of Pres. Obama’s agenda
In sum, ultimately I feel the tests of Pres. Obama’s agenda will be :
* Can our politics finally be reshaped so that the parties come together to address real world problems through compromise and seeking new approaches? ~ Can politics take time to work out well thought out longer term solutions (on healthcare or tax reform, for instance)? Or, will we be forever condemned to follow a sequence of Fiscal Cliff type crises of decision-making leaving the long-term unaddressed?
* Does our political leadership have the breadth of vision to tackle the new and challenging issues we now face? Or will they find it easier to simply appease the “vested interests” of today and shirk the hard choices? This includes Pres. Obama himself and the Democrats just as much as the Republicans. For both sides have a stake in avoiding change to satisfy the extreme “true believer” wings of their parties.
* Will America’s political class lead America to come together – as Pres, Obama rightly called us to do? For today it is the political activists and “true believers” who are highly “polarized” and not the American people. After all, none of us checks if the guys on our pick-up baseball team are Republicans or Democrats before we play with them, surely?
In the past three decades, the USA has led the world in technology and new product development – sparked by new private industries in Silicon Valley and elsewhere, that built upon prior public investments, for instance by DARPA in the Internet. Meanwhile, America’s physical and educational infrastructure have been neglected. Few new bridges have been built, or new universities established, since World War II!
It will take pragmatism and a forward-looking spirit to invest anew in public infrastructure to spark sustained higher private sector growth and prosperity for all in America. I, for one, hope that in the next four years, America’s politicians start to lead us there!