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by Don Azarias
June 18, 2010
It will really be a tough time for Democratic congressional incumbents in Washington come midterm elections this fall. On the other hand, Republican candidates should not feel too confident of their chances because it seems like the voters finally had it with both parties’ incumbents. However, the voters’ antiestablishment stance and anger seem to be directed more at the Democrats rather than the Republicans.
The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds that self-described independent voters, credited with helping Democrats take control of Congress in 2006, have switched their allegiance to the Republicans.
According to the poll, 38 percent of so-called independents say they will vote for Republicans this November, with only 30 percent for Democrats. Four years ago, ahead of the 2006 midterm elections, the same poll found that 40 percent of independents favored Democrats, with only 24 percent for Republicans.
Asked which of the two major parties should control Congress, respondents were deadlocked. But when asking only voters most interested in the outcome this November, 56 percent supported the Republicans and only 36 percent supported the Democrats. That’s the largest split in more than a year.
The Republicans, however, should not harbor any illusions of easy victory. While the poll suggests the GOP is on the verge of a comeback, it also indicates a strong anti-incumbent feeling toward both parties. Among those surveyed, only 21 percent said they approve of the job Congress is doing, while 72 percent pointed to disapproval.
In several primaries held on May 18 in different states, voters rejected one of President Barack Obama’s hand-picked candidates and forced another into a runoff.
Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania became the fourth Democrat in seven months to lose a high-profile race despite the president’s visible support for his campaign. It now raises doubts about Obama’s ability to help fellow Democrats in this November’s elections.
The first three candidates lost to Republicans. But Specter’s loss Tuesday to Rep. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania’s Democratic senatorial primary cast doubts on Obama’s influence and popularity even within his own party. Obama’s poor record thus far could hurt his legislative agenda if Democratic lawmakers decide they need some distance from him as they seek re-election in what seems to be an election year that favors Republicans.
Sestak’s victory over Specter is especially embarrassing for the White House, because he won by portraying himself and his supporters as being more faithful to the Democratic Party than were Specter and his backers———that included Obama, Vice President Joseph Biden, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell and other high-ranking party officials.
Rand Paul, tea party candidate, is the winner in Kentucky’s Republican primary for retiring GOP Sen. Jim Bunning’s seat. Paul told CNN on Wednesday he’d relish Obama’s campaigning on behalf of Democrat Jack Conway. Obama’s agenda, Paul said, is “so far to the left, he’s not popular in Kentucky.”
In another setback for Obama and Democrats, Sen. Blanche Lincoln was forced into a runoff in Arkansas’ Democratic senatorial primary. Obama supports her bid for a third term, but he is not as closely associated with her campaign as he was with Specter’s.
In previous months, Obama’s endorsements and campaign appearances weren’t enough to help then-Gov. Jon Corzine’s re-election bid in New Jersey. The same happened to Creigh Deeds in his run for governor in Virginia. And in what seemed to be the most shocking result of all was Martha Coakley loss in Massachusetts, a traditionally Democratic state. She lost to Republican Scott Brown for the Senate seat held by Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy for almost five decades. Coakley’s loss to Brown was a big blow for Obama and his Democratic allies. She once was considered a shoo-in, and her defeat restored the Republicans’ ability to block Democratic bills with Senate filibusters.
The Democratic Party and the Republican Party earned equally dismal reviews. So why are Republicans gaining in the polls? Based on this survey, it’s not about their leadership, policies or message. Those surveyed say their vote is based less on the GOP and more on their opposition to President Barack Obama and Democrats. Not exactly something for Republicans to cheer about but, in the final analysis, a victory is a victory.
The bad news for Obama is that numbers like this make it less likely that Democrats, especially those in tough races, will go along to vote for administration’s legislative agendas. Heading into the fall, the White House had hoped to tackle not only a rewrite of the nation’s financial laws but also major immigration reform and an energy/climate change bill. However, as election day approaches, especially with polling numbers like this, it’s doubtful that Obama and the Democrats will be able push through with these political programs as they will be too preoccupied with election campaign.
The results of earlier primaries and latest one on June 8 seem to put all incumbents on notice. The anger at both big government and big business is real. It’s clear that anyone affiliated with Washington or traditional party organizations is at risk, regardless of their political affiliation. It’s an anti-Washington, anti-establishment year, with voter frustrations fueled by a still-sluggish economy, unrelenting home foreclosures, high unemployment rate, low approval rating of Congress and lukewarm support of President Barack Obama.
The most indelible message of the May 18 election night was articulated by Joe Sestak in his victory speech: “this is a win for the people over the establishment.”
I’ll say amen to that, Mr. Sestak.