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by Don Azarias
December 3, 2010
The midterm elections are finally over with one message from voters: Change. The former out-of-power Republicans have now traded places with the former party-in-power Democrats and took control of the House. Although the GOPs failed to garner the needed ten seats to take control of the Senate, they were able to increase their number to further weaken President Barack Obama politically. Much as I try to, I was unable to put the words mildy just to soften the blow on Democrats for the reversal of political fortune after suffering a devastating loss.
Republicans are now on the warpath and flexing their muscles to push through their legislative agenda aimed to reduce taxes, cut $100 billion in spending, and dismantle Obama’s health care reform law and financial regulation plans.
Voters were intensely worried about the future of the economy for quite sometime and unhappy with the way Obama and the Democrats have been running things. Six out of 10 independent voters disapproved of the job Obama is doing. The tea party led by former governor Sarah Palin made a splash in its first election. About four out of 10 voters endorsed the movement. While a majority of voters said the tea party was not a factor in their House vote, those who did use their ballots to send a message about the tea party were slightly more likely to say they were signaling support of tea partiers than opposition to the movement.
Even if some economists say that the economy is growing, it is not being felt in majority of the states in the union. There is quite a number of states that are experiencing budget shortfalls and are laying off state, county and municipal workers. Such a slow growth won’t feel much like an economic recovery and won’t lead to substantial hiring. The unemployment rate, now at 9.6 percent, could even rise by the end of the year according to some economists. They don’t expect the labor market to recover all the lost jobs until at least 2013. Other economists say it could be 2018 or longer. It’s not really a rosy outlook for Obama and the Democrats.
In a speech to the Heritage Foundation, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), promised that Republicans will try to repeal the health care reform law, to block spending increases for most federal agencies and to cut some funding that Congress has already approved. He also reiterated that his main goal is to “deny President Obama a second term in office.”
Repealing the health care reform law is easier said than done. The GOPs seem to forget that Obama has the veto power and that they don’t have enough votes needed to override a presidential veto unless some Democrats switch sides. McConnell warned: “We have to be realistic about what we can and cannot achieve, while at the same time recognizing that realism should never be confused with capitulation.”
Incoming House Speaker, John Boehner (R-Ohio), made it clear that he won’t be seeking compromise with House Democrats. He was specific about the amount of spending cuts he wants and that’s around $100 billion. Boehner’s stance, however, could just be a political chest-thumping. I believe that, ultimately, he’ll be open to a compromise. That’s what politics is all about.
The midterm election defeat of some congressional Democrats is attributed primarily to voter anger when the voters went to the polls to cast their votes. Fortunately for Republicans, the anti-incumbent fervor among voters was so strong for Democratic incumbents to overcome.
However, Republicans should not be too overconfident to even think that they have the momentum going in their favor. The economy could make a full recovery and things could also get better two years from now. If there will be noticeable improvements in the job, stock, bond and housing markets, it will make mainstream workers feel that they are gaining real traction. It could then translate into renewed voters’ confidence in the Obama administration, even if unemployment remains high. And when things start to get better, the voters tend to have incredibly short memory and they almost always give credit to the White House occupant. That will be an advantage to Obama and the Democratic Party. But if the state of the economy remains the same as it is now, then voter anger could spill going into 2012 presidential election that will turn the tide for Republicans. They will have the chance to fully control Congress and install a Republican in the White House.
And now the question is, “Will 2011 be a GOP year going to 2012 presidential election?”