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by Don Azarias
July 23, 2010
It seems like President Barack Obama’s political fortune is turning into misfor tune lately and it’s causing him and his Democratic allies a lot of grief. Obama’s biggest problem: He has lost the so-called independent and moderate voters who are generally given the most credit for his win back in 2008. According to the poll, 52 percent of self-described independent voters disapprove of the job Obama is doing. The poll finds Obama with 17 percent disapproval among Democrats, the highest number of his presidency. Crisis after crisis and bad luck after bad luck seem to permeate his beleaguered administration. But, in fairness to him, these mess are not entirely his fault. However, in the final analysis, American voters will always put the blame on the party in power, meaning Obama and the Democratic Party.
With the high rate of unemployment and unrelenting home foreclosures brought about by the economic downturn under his watch, Obama and his Democratic allies are headed for a disastrous midterm election results come November.
Nearly 60 percent of American voters say they lack faith in President Barack Obama. It’s a reversal of what voters said at the start of Obama’s presidency 18 months ago when about 60 percent expressed confidence in his decision making. Confidence in Obama is at a new low but the poll found that his numbers are still higher than lawmakers of either major party four months ahead of the November congressional elections. Like I said earlier, the problems in the housing industry, sluggish job growth and other economic issues may have taken a toll on Obama’s approval rating.
Now the Obama administration is under siege again. The fallout from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill appears to be the biggest drag on Obama’s numbers. Fifty percent disapprove of his handling of the crisis. Less than half rate him positively when asked if he’s “honest and straightforward.” In January, 2009, 63 percent gave him positive marks for “being firm and decisive in decision-making.” That number is now at 44 percent. Asked about his “ability to handle a crisis,” only 40 percent rate him positively, an 11-point drop since January.
And the numbers only get worse from there: Sixty-two percent of respondents believe the country is on the wrong track, the highest number recorded since just before Election Day in 2008, and just one-third believe things are going to get better, a 7-point drop since a month ago and the lowest such number in the Obama presidency. Approval polls show that Americans are more pessimistic about the state of our nation than at any point in Obama’s presidency thus far.
None of this is good news for Democrats up for re-election this fall. Besieged Democratic candidates are finding out that being on Obama’s coattails is no longer helpful to their candidacy as they continue to lose the primary elections despite Obama’s endorsement. Also, according to this new poll, the GOP has a 2-point edge over Democrats in the generic congressional ballot. But among voters who describe themselves as most interested in the 2010 midterm elections, the GOP jumps to a 21-point lead over Democrats.
If this opinion of Obama persists, this is great news for the Republican Party in this midterm election year. On important questions that will be on American voters’ minds when they cast their votes give the edge to Republicans. They included: “supporting cutting federal spending” (advantage GOP), “favors financial reform of Wall Street” (advantage Democrats), “favors the new law in Arizona on immigration” (advantage GOP) and “supports repealing the health care reform law” (advantage GOP).
As expected, 91 percent of African Americans approve of Obama’s job performance, but his approval rating has dropped among Hispanics, independent voters, senior citizens, small-town residents and white women who were polled. GOP pollster Bill McInturff commented on the results of the survey, saying, “The results show a really ugly mood and an unhappy electorate. The voters are just looking for change, and that means bad news for incumbents and, in particular, for Democrats.” A silver lining for Obama is that his personal scores are still strong as 64 percent give him high marks for being easygoing and likeable and 51 percent give him high marks for being compassionate enough to understand average people. Yet those percentages, too, are down from last year. There is no doubt that the two-month Gulf spill has played a significant role in the president’s declining poll numbers. The result of a new survey, which was conducted after Obama’s fourth visit to the Gulf a couple of weeks ago and after getting BP to agree to a $20 billion escrow account to help pay for relief, remain unchanged: 50 percent say they disapprove of Obama’s handling of the spill, while 42 percent approve.
Confidence in Obama’s leadership has reached an all-time low largely due to American voters’ displeasure over the unemployment rate, our nation’s economic woes and the federal government’s involvement in the oil spill that has been wreaking havoc on the Gulf of Mexico since April 20. While his firing of General Stanley McChrystal may not be directly related to this, pollsters believe that it’s definitely a factor as a huge number of people are starting to doubt his leadership ability. General McChrystal’s military career might be over, but he has attracted the American people’s attention to focus more on the high costs of the seemingly unwinnable war in Afghanistan in terms of American lives and the nation’s resources, both financially and materially. Obama is losing his base and Democrats know it. One in four Democrats disapprove of the way he has handled the BP oil spill crisis. As I have pointed out in my previous articles, if this downward trend continues,Obama and Democrats are in for a rude awakening come 2010 midterm and 2012 presidential elections.