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~ “The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.” ~ Edward Grey, British Foreign Secretary, 1914, on the eve of World War I.
~“We are in the 21st century. We don’t solve conflicts militarily, we’ve said that. But we also don’t try to avoid conflicts. The current crisis is a very serious conflict in Europe.” ~ Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, March 12, 2014.
~“It happened in South Caucasus and it’s happening now in Ukraine. It’s the Soviet Union coming back.This is what we feel, whether you’re in government or civil society.” ~ Emin Milli, journalist, Baku, March 2014.
~“It’s all about freedom. We fight for our freedom. We fight for our independence. We fight for our sovereignty. And we will never surrender.” ~ Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukraine’s acting prime minister, March 12, 2014.
~“One petition from Russians in Ukraine asks Putin to leave Ukrainian citizens alone to solve their own problems. It has been signed by 140,000 people. It makes perfect sense. Russians in Ukraine enjoy basic political rights, whereas Russians in the Russian Federation do not.” ~ Prof. Timothy Snyder, March 2014
~“The people in the Crimea, in Donetsk or Kharkiv, are only superficially concerned about language, history and national identity. They want a job, a proper income, a better life. That’s where we need to try to offer them better solutions.” ~ Vitaly Klitschko, Ukrainian reformer, March 11, 2014
~“We have had some successes these last years. But we are only making fragmentary attempts to modernize our economy.” ~ Pres.Vladimir Putin, 2008.
~ “In Putin’s Russia, power networks operate undermining the key principles of equality of economic subjects, security of property rights and the rule of law.” ~ Alena Ledeneva, 2013
In recent days, Russian actions threatening the new independent government of Ukraine and promoting the break-away of Crimea into a puppet state or part of Russia have raised fears of a resumption of a Cold War between Russia and the West. Some observers, apocalyptically, see the rise of a new aggressive expansionist authoritarian state inside Russia. A sort of 21st century heir apparent to the legacy of Hitler’s Nazi Germany. If diplomacy fails, in this line of thinking, few options are left open short of severe economic sanctions, with the potential of eventual military confrontation.
In many respects Russia today is a shadow of the super power that the former Soviet Union was in its prime under Stalin immediately after World War II : ~ Its economy grew rapidly in the 1998-2008, but only after a massive – over fifty per cent – collapse after the fall of Communism. So today it is small by world standards – only one tenth the U.S. economy. ~ Even the Russian military – while very large, second only to the U.S.A. – is wracked by modernization and efficiency challenges.
Nevertheless, Russia’s provocative, bellicose and uncompromising actions pose a most serious challenge to the West – to America and Europe. And to the entire world.
Today we live in, and all benefit from, a globalized economy crucially reliant upon respect of established norms, national sovereignty and rule of law. But we also live in a complex, multi-polar post-Cold War international system, whose political culture is still evolving. Seen in this light, Russia’s actions pose a major threat to both the globalized economic system as well as international political order.
Ukraine has the same population as Spain – 46 millions, and a land area of 0.6 million square kilometers, larger than France, which is geographically the largest nation in western Europe. Left unchallenged, Russian military takeover of a such major neighboring state would set a potentially devastating and destabilizing precedent for the future in world affairs. The more so because it would have happened in the heart of Central Europe. At the meeting point of East and West. Combined with Russia’s dominant role in Europe’s oil and gas supplies, the risk of Russian military intervention could threaten the independence of former Eastern bloc states in Europe, as well as the fourteen other Former Soviet Union (FSU) nations bordering Russia.
Key Questions. – What exactly is the nature of the threat posed by Russia’s actions towards Ukraine? How does it fit into Russia’s larger strategy in the world? What does it tell us about the current state of Russia as a major power and its post-Communist transformation ? Why is Ukraine important and what does the current crisis really tell us about the roles of Russia and the European Union in its future and that of the broader region? What should Western strategy and response be to Russia’s challenge?
Russia’s Ukraine Challenge. – Since first coming to power in 1998, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin – aided by a powerful coterie of oligarchs and former KGB officials – has sought to revive Russia’s fortunes : first by stabilizing then restoring its economy; then by efforts aimed at effectively re-establishing Russia’s empire in the FSU. This had been broken up in 1991 through agreements recognizing the independent sovereignty of fifteen former Soviet republics, of which Ukraine was the largest and strategically most important.
While most of these new nations have sought to avoid re-integration into Russia, they have warily recognized the need to maintain workable relations with it, but with varying success. Russia meanwhile has fought several bloody wars to quell separatist movements – notably in Chechnya – and to annex territory of FSU states – notably in Georgia in 2008.
As in the case of Ukraine, this has often been done on the spurious pretext of protecting Russians living in those nations. Even though, as noted by Yale Prof. Snyder above, often those Russians – as in Ukraine now – are loath to rejoin Russia. As one Russian who left Crimea earlier this week to move to Kiev put it, he wanted his children to grow up under the rule of law, not in a Russia run by “thieves and criminals”. As it has emerged over the past decade, then, Russia’s strategy has been to try to convert former FSU states into puppets or dependents of Russia, or to continuously destabilize their economies and politics through a combination of coercion and economic blackmail. Ukraine is the latest and by far the largest step in this direction.
Russian actions vis-a-vis Ukraine in recent days clearly show the Russian political elites’ blatant disrespect for rule of law. Gazprom’s step – under political pressure from the Kremlin – to raise gas prices to Ukraine is in contravention of the 2009 agreement for the 35 year lease of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet base in Crimea – the payment for which is stipulated as a 30% subsidy in gas prices to Ukraine.
Russia’s World Strategy and Current Status. – Major economic reforms in 2001-03 – notably in taxation and property rights – stabilized Russia’s economy and propelled it to high – over 7% – annual growth through 2008. However, Russia under Putin has proven incapable of modernizing. Indeed, Putin has established a system of tight political control of the economy through re-nationalizations of privatized enterprises, reliance on a network of oligarchs – cronies of Putin, systematic weakening of all economic policies and institutions – including taxation, banks, property rights, rule of law.
Putin’s Russia has progressively devolved into a highly corrupt, venal and violent state in which government at all levels cannot protect or deliver services to its citizens. The breakdown and reversal of economic reforms, combined with lack of strong transparent political institutions have fostered increasing vulnerability and dependence upon oil and gas exports for fiscal revenues and growth, and an overall drop in growth to 1% in recent years. Meanwhile, in foreign policy, Putin’s Russia has sought to play the Russian or “slav” nationalist card – seeking to salve wounded national pride through projection of power – including militarily – and re-assertion of Soviet era goals – including the rebuilding of the Soviet empire in a different guise.
Why Is Ukraine Important? – Since its successful “Orange” revolution to democracy in 2005, Ukraine has come to represent a major FSU state aimed strongly towards market-based economic and competitive political reforms. At the grass-roots, especially among Ukrainian youth – including the Russians – a strong desire for a better future based upon transparency, rule of law, and a private market economy has gravitated them increasingly towards the European Union (EU) – where several million Ukrainians already live and work. Against this, Russia has not ceased major efforts to intervene in Ukraine to prop up the “old régime” of corrupt, Soviet era politicians, including recently ousted President Yanukovich.
Ukraine is a sizable economy with substantial long-term potential, held back until now by corruption and incomplete market reforms. Ironically, were Ukraine able to find a balance in relations between the EU and Russia and reform its politics and its economy, it could ultimately provide impetus and a model for reform inside Russia itself. To enable this, however, both the EU as well as Russia will need to fundamentally change their past approaches. For the EU has – for trade and employment protection reasons inside its own economies – been reluctant to open up to Ukraine and other FSU nations the way it did to Eastern European nations such as Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, that have now successfully modernized and reformed.
Ukraine thus presents starkly the choice between succumbing to Russian aggression that will completely block reform and risk the spread of Russian military expansionism elsewhere; and resisting it successfully in order to build a far brighter, more stable, and secure future. This not only for Ukraine itself but for all of Central and Eastern Europe, Russia and the EU.
What Should Western Strategy Be Now? – The USA and EU need to take a very firm stand in opposing Russia’s blatant and aggressive expansionism in Crimea – especially if it extends into Ukraine. Putin’s Russia is running far bigger long run risks in its backward-looking and out-of-date strategy of employing coercion and economic blackmail tin relations with its neighbors. This approach has proven repeatedly to backfire badly. Rather than cement stronger relations, it has provoked many Eastern European countries to seek the protection of EU and NATO membership to fend off Russian aggression. On the other hand, both the USA and the EU have often, since the fall of the Soviet Union, behaved quite ambivalently towards Russia and Eastern Europe.
Russian aggression in Ukraine, if not countered very forcefully now, risks setting dangerous precedents for the long term future in a new world political system still in process of emergence. For this reason, the rights of smaller nations, nationalities and minorities to democracy, self-determination and prosperity must be supported. Both the USA and the EU need to find more clearly defined, more open and unambiguous approaches to engaging with Russia and respecting its position in the world. Russia urgently needs to modernize its economy and society. To do so, it needs to reform its politics and build new institutions based upon freedom of expression and the rule of law. Provided Russia is willing to sign up for such an approach for itself and its neighbors clearly and unequivocally, the West needs to be far more prepared to work with Russia to build that future.
Conclusions : – Thus far, the Obama Administration as well as the EU powers have talked much of mounting a strong reaction to Russia’s aggression, including economic sanctions. But to date, the sanctions adopted do not go nearly far enough to send a strong signal to dissuade Putin. It is clear Russia’s business leaders greatly fear economic consequences. To be effective, therefore, stern and broad economic sanctions should be adopted in very short order. These should include : ~ cutting off Russian government, corporate banking institutions from Western financial markets and freezing their assets; ~ cutting back considerably in stages imports of Russian oil and gas, replacing it with alternative fuels from other sources, as part of a long-term supply diversification program. In addition, military steps should be taken already to prepare to counter any Russian aggression and to back up a call for Russian withdrawal from Crimea – the future of which should be determined constitutionally within Ukraine as part of a program of power devolution. To ensure this can happen, America and the EU need urgently to supply fully the arms, ammunition, supplies and other equipment requested by Ukraine’s Acting Prime Minister Yatsenyuk. Not to do so now would be to show the USA and EU are not serious in their support for Ukraine’s independence. It could lead to consequences on the ground – including the declaration of an independent Crimea this coming weekend, that could be difficult or impossible to roll back later.
I, for one, hope that political leaders in America and Europe, and in Russia, will take all steps necessary firmly and quickly to resolve the Ukraine crisis, and to avert the global destabilization it would cause.
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