Is it ‘Binggoy’ in 2016?

With the 2016 presidential elections still two years away, presidential and vice-presidential wannabes have already started jockeying for positions to succeed President Benigno “P-Noy” Aquino III and Vice President Jejomar “Jojo” Binay.   Among the presidential hopefuls, Binay has been promoting himself for the presidential job since his election as Vice President in 2010. 
For someone who had expressed a desire to be become President long before the 2010 elections, Binay had a chance of winning the 2010 presidential elections until September 2009 when Aquino decided to run after the death of his mother, the late President Cory Aquino.  But his chances were further diminished when his good friend, former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada, joined the presidential race.  Their entry hit Jojo with a double whammy.  Noynoy (P-Noy) and Erap were close to Jojo, particularly Noynoy whom he considered a family friend.  “Binay got Noynoy’s back,” an Aquino family member once said.    
Debt of gratitude
Binay’s relationship with the Aquino family goes back to Cory’s revolutionary government following the toppling of the Marcos dictatorship in 1986.   Jojo was one of Cory’s first appointed local officials whom she appointed as Officer-in-Charge (OIC) of Makati.  He was elected Mayor in 1988 and reelected in 1992 and 1995.   Termed out in 1998, then-President Erap Estrada appointed him as Chairman of the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority.   In 2001, Jojo ran again for Mayor of Makati, and handily won.  He was reelected in 2004 and 2007. 
It was most likely that Binay’s close relationship with the Aquino and Estrada families made him defer his presidential ambitions in 2010.  If that was the case, it was a way of repaying his debt of gratitude – utang na loob – to Cory and Erap.  However, it can also be argued that he would have lost had he ran against Noynoy and Erap in May 2010.  That election resulted in Noynoy’s election and Erap placing second.     
But Jojo didn’t completely opt out of the race.  He ran as Erap’s vice presidential running mate against Noynoy’s running mate, Mar Roxas.  Indeed, Jojo played his hand with two aces in the hole: If Noynoy and himself had won, he’d be one step closer to the presidency and likewise if Erap and himself had won.    
But as it turned out, a group consisting of Aquino’s family members, friends, and cronies ran a clandestine campaign, which teamed up Noynoy and Jojo (Noy-Bi).  Noy-Bi was in direct competition with the Liberal Party’s campaign for an Aquino-Roxas (Noy-Mar) tandem.    The question is: did Noynoy know and encourage the Noy-Bi campaign and throw his running mate under the bus?  Considering that Mar withdrew his presidential bid in 2010 to make way for Noynoy’s candidacy, it makes one wonder if there is such as thing as utang na loob in politics?   
P-Noy’s dilemma 
Now, with Roxas expected to run for President in 2016 – although he claimed he was not going to – it would pit him against Jojo, again… just like in 2010.  Since P-Noy (Noynoy) and his good friend Mar belong to the Liberal Party – just like they were in 2010 – and since P-Noy is the titular head of the Liberal Party, supporting Mar’s presidential bid would be the right thing to do.  But then again, P-Noy – just like in 2010 – would have the same dilemma; that is, who would he support – Jojo or Mar?  However, he can avoid the agony of making a choice between Jojo and Mar by declaring his neutrality, and just let the Noy-Bi and Noy-Mar groups do the dirty work for their respective candidates. 
Meanwhile, speculation is abound about who would be Roxas’s running mate should he decide to run?  Among them are Sen. Chiz Escudero and P-Noy’s sister, entertainment star Kris Aquino.   While both of them deny the rumors floating around, the possibility of a Mar-Kris ticket is gaining traction.  If a Mar-Kris ticket becomes a reality, P-Noy would most likely support and campaign for the ticket.   
Mar-Kris, Binay-Kris 
However, like what happened in 2010 where two groups – Noy-Bi and Noy-Mar – commonly supported Aquino but differed on his running mate, what would preclude a similar scenario from happening?   
If Kris would indeed run for Vice President as Mar’s running mate, could it be possible that two new groups – Mar-Kris and Binay-Kris – would commonly support Kris for Vice President and divided between Mar and Binay for President?  If so, history could be – somewhat — repeating itself with a Binay-Kris victory.  Poor Mar!  Is he going to be thrown under the bus… again?  
Recently, Binay, chairman of Partido Demokratikong Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban), announced that he is leaving PDP-Laban due to internal rifts, which he did not elaborate.  He said that he is going to build a brand new political party to carry his presidential bid.  He also said that his new political party would apply for membership in the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) coalition, which he helped build in 2013 with Erap and Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile (known as the “Three Kings”).  But as soon as he made the announcement, PDP-Laban broke away from UNA.   
Last March 7, he confirmed that Sen. Jose “Jinggoy” Estrada (Erap’s son) and Batangas Gov. Vilma Santos-Recto were among those who are being considered to become his vice presidential running mate.  Jinggoy was elated, saying, “I’m just happy to be one of those being considered.”  But Vilma said she was too busy governing the province of Batangas and has no plans of running for any office.    
Binggoy ticket 
Although a Binay-Jinggoy – or “Binggoy” for short — ticket had been anticipated since the formation of the UNA coalition in 2012, Jinggoy’s alleged involvement in Janet Lim-Napoles’ P10-billion pork barrel scam would be a distraction to the Binggoy ticket.   And with plunder charges filed against Jinggoy — together with Enrile, and Sen. Ramon “Bong” Revilla III – it could damage the credibility of Binay whose popularity had been consistently rated “very good.”  Simply put, Jinggoy doesn’t have anything to contribute to a Binggoy victory, which makes one wonder why Binay would choose Jinggoy to be his running mate?  For one thing, corruption scandals are things that Binay should stay away from; they could sink his ship.  
While Binay could still win the presidency regardless of how Jinggoy performs in the elections, there is no guarantee that he could pull it; he is taking a big risk of being pulled down by Jinggoy.   But the reverse could also be true; that is, Jinggoy could ride the coattails of Binay, which begs the question: Is it Binggoy in 2016?  Perhaps… unless Kris joins the race and that would certainly be a game changer.
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